AGP Executive Report

Brazil Economy Outlook: Brazil cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.0% (from 2.3%) and trimmed inflation expectations, citing weaker services and industry despite agriculture holding up, as the central bank continues a cautious easing cycle. UN & Sovereignty: At the UN General Assembly, Lula warned against foreign interference in Brazil’s October election and defended multilateral diplomacy as conflicts and tensions widen. Amazon Policy: Lula signed decrees creating four new Amazon sustainable reserves to protect 668,000 hectares as Brazil pushes ahead with plans to pave the BR-319 highway. Energy & Fuel Costs: Diesel prices hit record highs in Europe and the U.S. amid refinery strain and supply disruptions linked to the Iran and Ukraine wars. Tech & Regulation: A São Paulo court ordered Apple to verify users’ ages before minors can buy in-app virtual chips for a casino-style game, with daily fines for noncompliance. Corporate Moves: Vale agreed to buy a 30% stake in Ligga in a deal worth about $190M, aiming to expand iron ore output.

Brazil Election Watch: Two new runoff polls show Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro locked in tight races, with one-point leads in separate surveys—another sign the Oct. 4 vote could hinge on margins. UNGA & Diplomacy: World leaders gather for the 81st UN General Assembly amid wars and AI risk; Brazil is set to speak first by tradition as India pushes “reformed multilateralism” and supply-chain de-risking. Critical Minerals & Energy Policy: Brazil’s critical minerals agenda and incentives stay in focus as companies and partners line up for processing and investment, while LNG traders weigh alternative supply routes as Middle East disruptions persist. Business & Deals: CoreMarine completes its BravOcean acquisition to expand Brazil subsea capabilities; Strohm and Petrobras-Shell qualify TCP flowline tech for Brazil’s pre-salt. Cyber & Compliance: A WordPress “wp2shell” exploit campaign reportedly hit government and small-business targets, including Brazil. Education Tech Launch: StrikePlagiarism enters Brazil via a local partner, offering Portuguese support and BRL invoicing.

UNGA Diplomacy: Lula met New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani in New York, focusing on shared cost-of-living pressures ahead of Brazil’s Oct. 4 election. Critical Minerals & Commodities: Investors are watching copper, silver and rare earths as global supply and geopolitics shift; in Brazil, Vale-linked projects and critical-minerals policy keep attention on output growth. Agri Inputs Deal: OCP Nutricrops and Brazil’s agriculture ministry agreed to supply 3.8 million tons of fertilizer in 2026-2027, including major TSP volumes, with added soil and low-carbon cooperation. Energy & Fuel Costs: Diesel prices hit record highs in Europe and the US as Iran-Ukraine disruptions tighten supply, raising pressure on transport and inflation. Banking & Rates: Analysts flagged Itaú Unibanco’s strong ROE but limited upside versus Brazil’s high risk-free rate, while Brazil’s Central Bank moves to curb predatory lending. Data Centers: OData is rolling out Aligned’s DeltaFlow liquid cooling at Brazil and Mexico sites, a sign of accelerating AI infrastructure demand. Environment Watch: Amazon deforestation fell in 2025, but lasting protection hinges on extending enforcement beyond the Amazon.

Brazil Election Watch: Brazil heads into Oct. 4 with a tight presidential race and one dominant economic issue: a fiscal adjustment that analysts say will land on whoever wins, as polls show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro within a few points. Amazon Conservation Risk: Environmental groups warn a Bolsonaro win could reverse Amazon enforcement gains, raising risks of more deforestation, Indigenous land invasions and illegal infrastructure. Corporate & Legal: A Rio court ordered revised bids for Oi Solucoes, the B2B unit of bankrupt Oi, rejecting offers that link payments to future contract revenues. Energy & Trade Links: Guyana’s Linden residents are urged to prepare for more Brazil-linked tourism and trade as the Linden-Mabura Road boosts cross-border movement. Payments & Fintech: A policy debate highlights how Brazil’s Pix instant payments build trust through reliability and low friction, while regulators elsewhere weigh tougher rules. Global Context for Brazil: India’s exports to core BRICS markets rose 34% in Apr-Aug, with Brazil among the fastest-growing destinations, underscoring BRICS trade momentum.

Central Bank Independence Watch: Bloomberg’s Jonathan Levin warns rising government debt is blurring the line between fiscal authorities and central banks, raising risks for inflation-targeting credibility. Brazil Election & Security: Multiple reports flag heightened political tension ahead of Brazil’s 2026 vote, including warnings about possible foreign interference and disputes that could disrupt the electoral process. BRICS Trade Momentum: India’s exports to core BRICS economies (including Brazil) jumped 34% to $19.9bn in Apr–Aug, with China leading and Brazil among the faster-growing destinations—another signal of shifting trade gravity. Local Finance & Markets: Investors are rotating toward local-currency emerging-market bonds as dollar debt lags under higher US yields, with Brazil highlighted among markets seeing domestic absorption. Sustainability & Waste-to-Energy: Salvador, Bahia is pushing a palm-oil waste recycling plan with City Hall and Petrobras, aiming to turn millions of liters of used oil into energy. Agribusiness & Food Prices: Global grain supply tightness is driving the grain rally, even as US corn harvests look strong—raising stakes for Brazil-linked commodity flows.

Brazil Election Watch: A Goldman Sachs survey says foreign investors see big upside for Brazil equities via EWZ if Flávio Bolsonaro beats Lula, with the first round on Oct. 4 and a possible runoff Oct. 25—foreign capital is also starting to return. Crypto Regulation: Brazil’s central bank rules are squeezing the market hard: only five crypto exchanges applied for operating licenses, with analysts expecting just a small fraction to qualify, and some foreign platforms like Lemon exiting. BRICS & Trade: India’s exports to core BRICS markets (including Brazil) jumped 34% in April–August, led by China, underscoring BRICS’ growing pull for regional trade flows. Energy & Shipping: Oil prices rose in August on Asian demand and speculators, while global shipping is seeing a race for tankers and floating LNG capacity as geopolitical risks reshape routes. Brazil Social-Economy: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu coaches are using the sport to pull kids out of favela poverty, with demand now spilling into China. Markets Macro: The Fed raised rates again, and global central banks signaled tighter policy as inflation concerns persist.

BRICS Momentum: BRICS is pushing a “new global order” narrative after its New Delhi summit, expanding cooperation and the Global South’s voice while renewing calls to reform institutions like the IMF and World Bank. Critical Minerals & Policy: Brazil is tightening control over critical-minerals deals and building a framework to keep more value from resources, as regulators abroad scrutinize nickel supply chains and financing models. Brazil–U.S. Trade Tensions: The U.S. Russia sanctions bill boosts tariff uncertainty, while Brazil and the U.S. are set to resume tariff talks at the G20—raising stakes for exporters and supply chains. Election & Security: Brazil’s intelligence agency warns of possible U.S. interference in the 2026 presidential election, citing escalating pressure tied to strategic assets and natural wealth. Welfare & Politics: Lula’s welfare boost is set to add R$22.7bn to 2027 spending, becoming a flashpoint ahead of the election. Rio Public Security: Rio’s Maré pacification shows how complex local governance and armed faction control can turn policy into a high-risk, slow-moving security project. Energy & Industry: Petrobras locks in long-term LNG supply from Sempra, while solar module imports in Brazil fell sharply in H1.

Solar Energy & Imports: Brazil imported 5.48 GW of PV modules in H1 2026, down 48% year-on-year, as curtailment and risk fears hit utility-scale projects. Aviation & Business: Embraer delivered the first milestone Praetor 600E to Flexjet, with the super-midsize jet positioned for wealthy corporate travel and deliveries running through 2030. Carbon Rules for Airlines: ANAC opened a public consultation for rules to monitor, report and verify CO₂ from domestic air operations under Brazil’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel program, with compliance tied to SAF reduction targets. Agribusiness & Fertilizer: OCP Nutricrops and Brazil’s agriculture ministry signed an MoU for 3.8 million tonnes of fertilizer supply in 2026-27, alongside soil and crop-focused innovation. Climate & Food Prices: El Niño-linked weather extremes threaten sugarcane output across Asia, raising the odds of global price volatility—an issue for Brazil’s sugar and ethanol-linked markets too. Security & Crime: Analysis says Tren de Aragua has expanded in Brazil, partnering with local factions and creating a new cross-border security challenge. Election Watch: Lula’s Rio crime pilot is set to be tested ahead of Brazil’s election.

Public Security in Rio: President Lula unveiled a federal pilot to expand joint action against organized crime in Rio ahead of October elections, boosting coordinated policing, inspections, intelligence and surveillance along key highways and targeting both trafficking and the groups’ financial networks. House Passes Russia Sanctions Tariffs: The US House approved the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, giving Trump broad power to impose up to 100% tariffs on the biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas—raising new uncertainty for global energy markets and trade. Amazon Oil Risk: Petrobras’ offshore exploration push off Côte d’Ivoire and its Amazon-linked oil hunt spotlight spill fears for communities near exploration areas in Brazil’s north. Household Debt Pressure: Reuters reports Brazil’s digital lending boom is driving record household indebtedness, with many borrowers facing high-cost credit cards and unsecured loans ahead of the election. HIV Prevention Deal: Gilead and PAHO agreed to expand access to lenacapavir across 14 Latin American and Caribbean countries, including Brazil, via a regional procurement pathway. Energy-Saving Cities Study: New research says electrifying transport plus mode shifts could sharply cut oil and gas imports in Brazil and other major economies.

Brazil Election & Policy Signals: Lula’s left-wing government announced a 15% boost to flagship welfare payments and floated a new debt-relief push ahead of the October vote, as voters weigh financial strain and campaign spending. Central Bank & Rates: Brazil’s central bank cut the benchmark rate for a fifth straight time, keeping the focus on how quickly easing can feed through to growth and election sentiment. Trade Outlook: Brazil expects a record 2026 trade surplus above $90B even with new U.S. tariffs, citing market openings and diversification beyond the U.S. Legal/Institutional Risk: Brazil’s Supreme Court crisis deepened ahead of general elections, raising concerns about political stability and investor confidence. Energy & Amazon Watch: Petrobras-linked offshore oil hopes in the Amazon are colliding with local fears of spill impacts, putting environmental risk and development promises in the spotlight. Finance & Dealmaking: Itaú Unibanco consolidated European wholesale banking operations under a Luxembourg platform, signaling long-term commitment to Europe–South America client growth. Global Trade Bloc Talk (BRICS): Coverage around BRICS emphasized “Greater BRICS” cooperation and local-currency/payment infrastructure as a practical alternative to a sudden currency shift.

Drug Policy Clash: Brazil’s Justice Ministry pushed back on Donald Trump’s claims that the country is failing to tackle organized crime, citing its March 2026 Anti-Gang Law and arguing the U.S. ignores federal efforts. Crime Crackdown: Europol-backed action with Brazil and Italy led to seven arrests tied to an Ndrangheta-linked cocaine and money-laundering network, with homes, firms and assets seized in São Paulo. Welfare & Elections: President Lula signed a decree raising Bolsa Família benefits by 15% to 691 reais, aiming to boost purchasing power ahead of October voting. Monetary Policy: Brazil’s Central Bank cut the Selic rate for a fifth straight meeting to 13.75%, citing inflation risks amid election uncertainty. Agribusiness: IBGE reported 2025 farm output at 345.4m tons and production value at BRL 927.2bn, with soybeans still driving growth. Critical Minerals: Lula signed a National Policy for critical and strategic minerals, backed by incentives and a BRL 7bn investment push. Digital Economy: iFood will invest US$4.7bn in Brazil through March 2027 to defend its lead amid 99Food and Keeta competition. Auto & Tech: Renault and Geely expand their Brazil JV with a 2bn reais investment, while Hyundai tested stablecoins for cross-border treasury transfers. Energy & Trade: Brazil created policy to boost critical-minerals production, as tariff talks with the U.S. loom near elections.

Brazil Monetary Policy: Brazil’s central bank cut the Selic rate for a fifth straight time to 13.75%, keeping the easing cycle on track as Lula seeks re-election, while warning inflation risks remain higher than usual. US-Brazil Election Tensions: Lula said he will tell Donald Trump at the UN General Assembly “don’t meddle” in Brazil’s October elections, after Washington’s tariff moves were framed as election pressure. Automotive & Manufacturing: Geely began the first local production of a Brazil-built model—its Renault Geely JV started making the Geely EX5 EM-i Super Hybrid in Paraná—signaling a push for electrified vehicles across South America. Agriculture & Climate Risk: Embrapa submitted 163 measures to help farmers manage climate shocks for the 2026/27 season, including drought, excess rain, heat, storms, frost and fire. Tech & Research: IQM will deliver its first quantum computer in South America to Brazil’s Eldorado Research Institute, with installation planned for early 2027 near São Paulo. Payments & Fintech: A report notes India leads UPI transactions and Brazil is next, highlighting the shift toward app-based payments. Trade & Competition Watch: The EU warned MMG’s planned purchase of Anglo American’s nickel business could restrict competition and raise costs for European stainless steel makers.

Brazil-US Finance & Trade: Brazil and the U.S. are set to resume tariff talks in late September, as both sides try to manage a widening trade conflict. Banking & Fintech: Nubank has launched in the U.S. using a partner-bank model and a multicurrency digital account, aiming to speed up customer rollout ahead of a full banking license decision. Elections & Politics: Flávio Bolsonaro is in the spotlight as Brazil’s Supreme Court turmoil and a corruption probe over alleged illegal financing of a Bolsonaro biopic add pressure to the 2026 race. Judiciary Watch: Brazil’s Supreme Court session ended without resolving whether Justice Alexandre de Moraes can be probed, leaving key procedural questions unsettled. Economy & Consumer Demand: A USP study says online gambling drained BRL 120–141 billion from Brazil’s economy in 2025, hitting tax revenues and weighing on growth. Energy & Industry: Brazil is tightening rules on Amazon shipping surcharges during droughts, while Petrobras continues assessing a major Amazon basin discovery. Global Tech Policy: BRICS leaders pushed AI cooperation and “digital sovereignty,” including proposals for open-source AI collaboration.

Brazil Politics & Courts: Brazil’s Supreme Court deadlocked in a televised fight over whether to open an investigation into Justice Alexandre de Moraes, accused of improper ties to jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro—an episode now spilling into the election campaign. Agribusiness & Elections: At the Barretos Cowboy Festival, ranchers and farmers rallied behind Flavio Bolsonaro, blaming Lula for high taxes and signaling a rightward shift in October voting. Energy Regulation: Aneel approved a regulatory sandbox for energy storage and access in the Legal Amazon, aiming to test new models for supplying remote communities. Auto Manufacturing: Renault Geely do Brasil started local production of the Geely EX5 EM-i Super Hybrid at the Ayrton Senna complex, while Nissan plans to invest £170m in Sunderland to build the new Kicks for Europe. Offshore Oil Supply Chain: Vallourec won a major contract for Petrobras’ Sepia 2 pre-salt project, supplying ~130 km of line pipe and coatings. Business & Risk: Opio raised €4m to automate financial due diligence for auditors and deal teams. Environment & Security: Global Witness reported 124 land and environmental defenders killed in 2025, with Brazil among the deadliest countries.

BRICS Summit Watch: The 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi pushed a “New Delhi Declaration” focused on trade, energy security and conflict restraint, while highlighting how hard it is for a bloc with rival interests to agree on real economic moves. Energy & Industry: Sempra will supply Petrobras with 800,000 tons of LNG per year for 20 years, as North American gas deals gain momentum amid shifting Middle East supply. Amazon Risk: A new IPAM analysis says gold mining expansion is surging on Indigenous lands in Brazil’s Amazon, driving deforestation and mercury contamination and raising health and climate adaptation threats. Trade Modernization: India and MERCOSUR signed a protocol to accept electronic Certificates of Origin, aiming to speed paperless trade and customs processes. Auto Investment: Renault and Geely plan €319 million in new Brazil investment via their joint venture, expanding production plans and hybrid output. Crypto Markets: OranjeBTC launched a Bitcoin-backed income ETF on Brazil’s B3, routing returns via preferred shares of US firms holding large Bitcoin treasuries. Business Climate: WTO warns trade fragmentation could cut global GDP by over 5%, adding pressure on Brazil’s export outlook.

Tariff Talks: Brazil and the U.S. are lining up another round of in-person talks on U.S. tariffs on Brazilian goods, likely at the end of September around the G20, with Brazil saying it will negotiate but reject “unilateral” measures. Election Stakes in Energy: Ahead of Brazil’s October vote, President Lula vowed to keep oil and critical minerals under Brazilian control, pointing to global competition for rare earths and lithium. Critical Minerals Policy: Brazil’s Congress has already approved a legal framework for critical and strategic minerals to boost domestic processing and investment. Ratings Shock: Fitch downgraded telecom operator Oi to ‘D’ and withdrew its ratings, a fresh hit for Brazil’s corporate credit outlook. BRICS Payments Push: New Delhi’s BRICS summit wrapped with renewed calls for financial-system reform and more local-currency settlement, while experts note the push is aimed at reducing dollar dependence. Trade Deal Momentum: Switzerland’s Senate approved the Mercosur trade agreement, a potential tailwind for broader South American trade flows. Tech & Cyber Deal: WDC Networks agreed to buy software distributor Teki for BRL 900,000, expanding its cybersecurity and software distribution footprint. Sovereign AI Debate: South Africa’s AI policy draft was pulled after AI-generated citations surfaced, underscoring the region’s push for “AI sovereignty” and data control.